DrumBeat: March 6, 2009

2009-03-06 09:27:01

by The Oil Drum - Discussions about Energy and Our Future


Kurt Cobb: Jeffrey Brown and the Net Oil Exports Crisis

With peak oil comes peak oil exports. Why Texas oilman Jeffrey Brown thinks the world is headed for a drastic energy downsizing and soon.

Texas oilmen who advocate for 1) a massive reduction in oil consumption through the electrification of transportation, 2) large investments in energy efficiency and 3) the relocalization of commerce to reduce the long and energy-intensive logistical lines now typical of the globalized economy are about as rare as vegetarians at a cattlemen's association luncheon. In fact, Jeffrey Brown, a Dallas-based independent petroleum geologist who manages a joint-venture exploration program, may be one of a kind. The genesis of his rather radical views--radical, that is, for a Texas oilman--are a simple question he asked himself several years ago: What happens to oil exports in a world with constrained oil supplies?

Oil rises above $44 despite grim US corporate news

Oil prices rose above $44 a barrel Friday on investor optimism that falling U.S. gasoline costs amid the worst recession in decades may increase demand for crude.

Gains were limited, however, as markets awaited February U.S. unemployment figures, due for release later Friday and expected to show the highest jobless rate since 1984.


Face to face with T. Boone Pickens

'If you don't think that you're gonna see a $200 barrel of oil, you're joking.'


Can Natural Gas Break Our Oil Habit?

Pickens, along with a growing number of groups, wants America to slash its oil consumption by making better use of natural gas. In theory, the plan sounds simple. Around 22 percent of the natural gas burned each year is used to generate electricity. If wind energy were substituted for gas at power plants, the freed-up natural gas could be used instead to fuel ground transportation systems, starting with diesel-burning fleet trucks and buses. Advocates say this plan could cut U.S. oil imports by up to 38 percent.

Yet if the nation makes the switch from oil to natural gas to run its vehicles, will it simply be trading one foreign-dependent fuel for another? The answer is, probably. But to what extent is very hard to say. "Welcome to uncertainty," says Gordon Kaufman, a professor emeritus and oil and gas expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Sloan School of Management.


OPEC to Reduce March Shipments by 1.9%, Oil Movements Says

(Bloomberg) -- OPEC will reduce crude-oil shipments by 1.9 percent in the month ending March 21 as producers use record cuts to stem falling prices, according to tanker-tracker Oil Movements.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, producer of more than 40 percent of the world?s oil, will load 22.67 million barrels a day in the period, down from 23.1 million a day in the month ended Feb. 21, Oil Movements said in a report today. That would be the lowest volume since 2004.


China's oil imports limited by storage capacity

HAIKOU (Xinhua) -- Limited storage facilities are hampering China's efforts to import large volumes of oil while world prices are relatively low, an official with the Guangzhou customs house told an energy conference here Friday.


Consumers Find Betting on Gas Prices Brings Heating-Bill Hazard

Half of U.S. residential gas customers, some 35 million households, are in states that allow them to shop for the best gas price. Trying to lock in a cheap gas price is usually a losing bet, consumer advocates said.


Low oil could stall auto efficiency drive-firm

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Falling oil prices could hurt investment in fuel efficient vehicles and capital projects designed to promote energy saving technologies, an automotive research firm warned on Thursday.

CSM Worldwide told the Environmental Protection Agency that some conditions for that scenario appear in play already with recession pushing oil prices down nearly 4 percent on Thursday on expectations of lower fuel consumption overall.

"It's simple economics - consumers and investors are not likely to invest in fuel efficient vehicles and capital intensive new technologies if a sharp drop in oil prices undercuts them," said Eric Fedewa, vice president of CSM's global powertrain forecasts.


Talisman reports 69% surge in income in ?year of change?

Chief executive John Manzoni said: ?We set the company in a new strategic direction and realigned major parts of the organisation in support of the new strategy. We've also successfully navigated a very dynamic economic environment, posting record financial results despite the collapse in oil and natural gas prices in the fourth quarter.?

The company reported a record £1.934billion in net income for 2008, a 69% increase on 2007 despite writedowns associated with year-end pricing and reserves.


Norway oil fund shrinks to $297bn

Norway's sovereign wealth fund - the oil fund - shrank by 7.5% to a preliminary figure of Nkr 2.102 trillion ($297.2 billion) in January from the end of December, the central bank's monthly balance sheet showed.


Obama's True Goals

What are the real goals of Barack Obama's energy plan? The new president entered the White House with three core objectives: combating climate change, reducing US dependence on foreign oil, and building a clean energy future with renewable energy sources. In his first six weeks in office, Obama has moved swiftly to address all three, primarily through a $787 billion economic stimulus package and his first budget proposal -- a "once in a generation" fiscal plan that seeks to radically reorder US policy priorities.

In some ways Obama's energy objectives are complementary -- for instance, an expansion of renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, geothermal and biofuels helps reduce foreign oil dependency. However, in others, the goals are contradictory. The president's pledge to "promote the responsible production of oil and gas" would help cut imports, but would undermine his climate goals.


Clinton warns against 'energy weapon'

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton condemned the use of energy as a political lever today, a day after Russia threatened to cut gas supplies to Ukraine in a move that would have hit supplies to Europe.

..."We are ... troubled by using energy as a tool of intimidation," Reuters quoted her telling a hearing at the European Parliament. "We think that's not in the interest of creating a better and better functioning energy system."


British solicitor Jeffrey Tesler arrested over gas deal ?bribes?

A British solicitor accused of taking part in a scheme to bribe Nigerian officials to secure lucrative gas contracts was arrested yesterday.

Police arrested Jeffrey Tesler, 60, at a business address in North London after authorities in the United States requested his extradition and that of another Briton, Wojciech Chodan.


Kazakhstan to Spend $4 Billion Oil Revenue on Economic Boost

(Bloomberg) -- Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev promised to spend 600 billion tenge ($4 billion) of oil revenue to bolster economic growth.

It?s ?right? to spend the revenue expected in 2009 and 2010 on ?a new plan for further economic modernization? and controlling unemployment, Nazarbayev said today in his annual address to the nation in Astana, according to state-run Kazinform. Kazakhstan will keep its foreign currency and gold reserves of $47 billion, he said.


Russia offers oil extraction technologies to Indonesia

JAKARTA (RIA Novosti) - Russia's Petros company and Indonesia's Nuansa Group have signed a memorandum on joint implementation of Russian technologies in the development of abandoned oil fields in Indonesia.

"There are many oil fields in Indonesia whose exploration has been abandoned for various reasons. We need new technologies to continue their development, and we are glad that we can now use Russian technologies," Nuansa Group president Susanto Suparso said at the signing ceremony late on Thursday.


Don't Regulate the Suburbs: America Needs a Housing Policy That Works

The "smart way," as the President suggests, is supposedly through the policies of "smart growth" and "new urbanism," which many communities in America have adopted in recent years to limit growth and upgrade their demographics by making housing less affordable. Under the guise of deterring sprawl?i.e., preventing additional neighbors? many suburban communities have adopted exclusionary zoning, impact fees, involuntary proffers, mandatory amenities, growth boundaries, service districts, infrastructure concurrency, and large-lot zoning to discourage new construction. Inevitably, these strategies raise housing prices.

As the record reveals, states and communities that have implemented the land-use regulations common to "smart growth" strategies are the same states and communities that have seen their housing prices soar over the past decade and have experienced the most severe delinquency and foreclosure rates, as well as the sharpest declines in house values in the past year. In sum, these "smart growth" strategies are an important contributing factor in the housing finance mess and severe recession that now confront the United States and several other countries that have implemented the same abusive land-use regulations.


Yu Koyo Peya

How much longer can industrial civilization last before it undermines the basis of its existence, imploding due to growth and complexity spiraling out of control? Why is this collapse scenario nearly inevitable? These are the questions Yu Koyo Peya attempts to answer. The opening sequence presents a frightening taste of how a desperate world racked by hunger and the breakdown of ?orderly society? might react to the cascading effects of Peak Oil on the economy in the near future. The narrator?s fate is not predetermined, however; those of us who are bright and courageous and most of all willing will be able to survive the collapse of global civiliation, perhaps even bringing about the florescence of a new age of human culture: the Afterculture. Those of us intrepid enough to follow this path will do so with one eye on our primitive past and the other on finding creative solutions to building a thriving, organic human community in a post-civilizational world.


Making Wellington resilient

Surrounded by waterways and native forest, Porirua City has a vibrant Pasifika community and the popular annual Festival of the Elements.

The balance of urban and rural environments connected by a rail/road network and deep-sea harbour provides the foundation for a resilient region.

However, the region faces threats to its environment and well being. We are vulnerable to earthquakes, tsunamis and climate-change impacts, such as more intense downpours, floods and droughts. After the catastrophic combination of a heatwave and fire in Australia, nobody could remain unaware of the reality of global warming.


GM unveils plug-in hybrid ? in Europe

GENEVA - GM's Adam Opel GmbH subsidiary presented the lithium-ion battery powered hatchback Ampera on Tuesday at the Geneva Motor Show, where electric-powered vehicles emerged as one way to persuade environmentally aware consumers to buy new cars during the global recession.


Senate leader offers plan for `green' power grid

WASHINGTON ? The Senate's top Democrat on Thursday proposed new federal authority to build special power lines that carry renewable energy ? like solar and wind power ? from remote places.

The Federal government would be able override states and direct where the lines would go and who would pay for them.


Gore group backs creation of .eco domain

The group said .eco "will be established for individuals to express their support for environmental causes, for companies to promote their environmental initiatives, and for environmental organizations to maintain their websites in a namespace that is more relevant to their core missions."

Proceeds from registration fees would be used to fund research on climate change and other environmentally related areas.


Geithner defends U.S. carbon cap-and-trade plan

WASHINGTON, March 5 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on Thursday defended the administration's plan to raise hundreds of billions of dollars in revenues from a carbon emissions cap-and-trade system, saying it would help wean America off imported oil.

Under grilling by Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives Budget Committee, Geithner said President Barack Obama's plan was would necessary to change incentives for U.S. energy use.

"It is critically important for our country that we begin the process now of changing the incentives Americans face on how they use energy," Geithner said. "It's important for reducing our dependence on foreign oil, it's critical for climate change."


US Senate unlikely to pass 100% auction of CO2 permits

The chairman of the US Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee said Thursday that it is unlikely the Senate will pass a climate-change bill that includes auctioning 100% of greenhouse gas emission credits.

New Mexico Senator Jeff Bingaman, the top Democrat on the committee, declined to say what percentage of credits would likely be proposed for auction, but said it was under discussion.


Countries that block global climate change deal risk isolation: Miliband

Countries that stand in the way of a global warming treaty now risk international isolation because of the US's new commitment under Barack Obama to reaching a deal, the climate change secretary, Ed Miliband has said.


Senate clears way to reverse polar bear rule

(AP) -- The Senate has cleared the way for the Obama administration to reverse a rule saying that greenhouse gases cannot be restricted in an effort to protect polar bears from global warming.


Geologists map rocks to soak CO2 from air

A new report by scientists at Columbia University's Earth Institute and the US Geological Survey points to an abundant supply of carbon-trapping rock in the US that could be used to help stabilize global warming.


The Inevitable Solution to Climate Change

One elegant way for President Obama to successfully implement a market-based approach to capping carbon, as he requested to Congress in his Congressional Address, is to grab hold of an idea from entrepreneur Peter Barnes called cap and cash back or cap and dividend.

It works like this: a limit is put on the carbon-producing fuels entering our economy. The atmospheric scientists first determine the limit and then 100% of the credits for the allowable amount of carbon-producing fuels are auctioned off each year. The government makes a profit estimated to be around $300 billion and then distributes the revenue to the American people.

The cash comes every month and the payments get higher as the cap on emissions get tighter. It's estimated that a family of four would get about $1,200 a year at first, with some energy conserving actions, a middle-income family can come out ahead financially.